Showing posts with label Chart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chart. Show all posts

Monday, March 19, 2007

Mexico

Mexico

Pemex CEO: Company is in critical condition
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/vi_23834.html

Mexico´s state oil monopoly is in "critical condition" and needs to boost exploration and seek outside expertise to replenish oil reserves that are currently set to last less than a decade, energy officials said Sunday.

President Felipe Calderón, however, said during a ceremony marking the 69th anniversary of the nation´s oil nationalization that there are no plans to privatize the industry and that Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, "will always continue to belong to all Mexicans."

Pemex´s proven reserves have fallen to the equivalent of 9.3 years of production from 9.7 years in 2005, and daily output declined last year by 2.3 percent to about 3.2 million barrels, officials said at the ceremony in the Gulf coast state of Veracruz.

"The situation of Petróleos Mexicanos is critical and merits immediate attention," Pemex chief executive Jesús Reyes Heroles .

The company currently transfers most of its income to the government in taxes and revenue sharing, leaving little for investment. Pemex sent 93.2 percent of its profits to the government last year, accounting for 37.5 percent of federal income.

At the end of last year, proven reserves were 5.8 percent lower than in 2005. And production at the Cantarell oil field, the country´s biggest, fell by 11.9 percent last year.

"We should be conscious that this situation cannot go on," said Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel, referring to policies that bar Pemex from entering joint ventures and alliances.

She said Mexico must seek "complementary investment," especially in technology and scientific knowledge, in order to develop energy infrastructure projects.

"If we do not confront and resolve the problems posed by these challenges, the situation of Petróleos Mexicanos could be become unsustainable over the long term," Kessel said

Mexico´s constitution, however, currently bans private or outside investment in Pemex. Private companies are currently allowed to serve as outside contractors on specific projects.

"We have to invest, and invest seriously, in exploration and turn this situation around," Calderón said.

He said one option was to form strategic alliances to explore for new reserves in deep waters off the Gulf of Mexico.

Reyes Heroles said the company replaced 41 percent of production with new reserves last year, up from 26.4 percent in 2005 but well below the 100 percent, complete-replacement level officials are seeking.

In real terms, he said, Pemex´s exploration budget in last year was 17 percent less than in 2005 and 42 percent less than in 2004.

Pemex funds many of its projects by assuming debt, which rose by about US$880 million last year to about US$51 billion.

In addition, the company has about US$40.7 billion in labor-related debts and commitments.

Reyes Heroles said Pemex remains the most indebted oil company in the world. He also said the company continues to be a target for fuel thieves, with 207 illicit openings discovered in pipelines or valves last year.

Officials also pushed for building more refinery capacity, noting that Mexico now imports about 40 percent of its gasoline.

The country is also a net importer of petrochemical products.











Monthly Mexican Production - Crude and Condensates only






From CERA's 2005 Report:


In Mexico the Cantarell field (2.2 mbd peak) dominates Mexican liquid productive capacity currently at 3.9 mbd. Cantarell is expected to start its decline in 2006 according to Pemex, but it may have already begun to decline. This decline will be partially offset by a nitrogen injection project at the Ku–Maloob-Zaap heavy oil fields, increasing capacity to 800,000 bd from 300,000 bd now—plus the Tabasco Littoral light oil project, which will add 250,000 bd by 2009. Major deepwater potential exists in Mexico adjacent to the US Gulf of Mexico, but will not make a contribution to liquids capacity until at least 2012.

Thursday, February 8, 2007

Saudi Arabia

01 - Saudi Arabia




Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are in the "A" Group. These three will be considered swing production.


For a more detailed look at Saudi Oil Production click on this link:

http://saudioilproduction.blogspot.com







From CERA's 2005 Report:

Saudi Arabia is a key component of the outlook, and crude and
condensate capacity (excluding the Neutral Zone) will average 11.3 mbd in 2005
and rise slowly to 11.6 mbd by 2010 (see Figure 7a). Some concerns have been
expressed recently about the ability of Saudi Arabia to expand liquids capacity,
with some commentators suggesting an imminent, dramatic decline. CERA believes
that capacity will not decline until well beyond 2020, with efforts being made
by Saudi Arabia to both replace natural decline and add new capacity in order to
reach a target of 12.5 mbd if necessary by 2010, which the Saudis believe will
provide 1.5–2 mbd of surge capacity.* Having recently inaugurated the Abu
Safah/Qatif fields, the country is expected to expand Haradh Phase 3 (300,000
bd) in early 2006, Shaybah (300,000–900,000 bd) in 2008, and the Khursaniyah
field (500,000 bd of new capacity) by 2007. If needed, the Khurais field will be
brought back onstream at up to 1.2 mbd by 2010. However, CERA believes that this
latter addition will be ramped up slowly or delayed.

USA

03 - USA


Crude and Condensate only

Russia

Number 2
Russia

Russian March Crude Oil Production Rises Annual 3.4 Percent

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the world's second-largest oil supplier, produced 3.4 percent more crude oil and oil condensate in March than in the same month last year.

Crude output climbed to 9.87 million barrels a day (41.76 million tons) from 9.46 million barrels a day in the same month a year earlier, according to data released today by CDU TEK, the Energy Ministry's dispatch center.

The monthly gain was 0.1 percent, after the country produced 9.86 million barrels a day of crude in February.




Wednesday, February 7, 2007

China

Number 6
China

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=42765

China's strong demand for energy spurred PetroChina to produce an aggregate of over 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent last year with crude oil accounting for 831 million barrels. Jiang forecast that PetroChina's oil output may rise to 2.3 million barrels a day this year, with gas production reaching 4.56 billion cubic feet a day. Its refineries will process an estimated 2.25 million barrels of crude daily.



From CERA's 2005 Report:

Capacity in China is projected to decline slowly from peak levels of 3.52 mbd in 2005 to 3.30 mbd in 2010. Many of the large onshore fields are in decline, but this will be partially offset by the increasing production from the Bohai Gulf area as the largest development, Peng Lai Phase 2, ramps up, and from the Wenchang and Pearl River Mouth areas.

United Arab Emirates

10 UAE


Nigeria

Number 12

Nigeria reached its recent highs of production in 2005 at 2.7 mbpd of crude plus condensate, 2.5 mbpd of which was crude oil. In the first quarter of 2006 there were reports of insurgent/rebel violence knocking out up to 800,000 bpd of production. This is not shown in the numbers from either the EIA or IEA, which have averaged about 20,000 bpd different for the last 18 months. The lowest recored production seems to be 2.1 mbpd in March and April, or a drop of 400,000 bpd.






Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Libya




Libya comes in at number 15 on the production list. Number 12 on the exporter list.

1,702 thousand barrels per day average in 2005 according to BP. According to BP this is also their recent peak production.

CERA has this to say:

Libya has suffered from two decades of underinvestment, but now that sanctions have been lifted, there is a feeling that it is "Aladdin’s cave waiting to be opened." Some US operators with major presanction positions have been negotiating to extend their old concessions, which were signed in the mid-1950s and are set to expire between end-2005 and early 2007 (Oasis Group–Conoco/Hess/Marathon and Zuetina Group–Oxy). The issue is not the principle of extension, but its length and the improvement of contractual terms. The Libyans held at the end of January the EPSA-1V upstream licensing round in which 15 new licenses were awarded. It marked the return of American companies, which won 10 out of the 15 areas. Although this round generated major interest, some notable companies either did not participate or bid unsuccessfully. Much of the country remains unexplored, and although non-US investors made progress during the period of sanctions, the level of investment was not enough to expand capacity significantly. Many of the fields are mature, and natural decline may be now be quite high as a result of underinvestment during the sanction period.

A further licensing round is anticipated to start in second quarter 2005, and a mature fields round is in expected in mid-2005. CERA anticipates that liquids capacity will climb from 1.95 mbd in 2005 to 2.47 mbd in 2010. Much of this gain will be sourced in the medium term from rehabilitation of the existing fields, especially those of the Oasis and Zuetina groups, but some capacity will be added from discoveries that will be made in the next two to three years. In the short term, liquids additions from the Elephant and El Saharah fields and the West Libya Gas Project will continue to expand. Perhaps the greatest constraint on progress will be the pace at which the Libyan authorities decide to manage the influx of new investment.

Further analysis:

The EIA has Libya at 1,633 C+C production for 2005, up slightly to 1,684 for 2006(thru November) - roughly in-line with BP numbers, when you figure 68kbpd NGL's(2004). So we're going to go with CERA's forecast to 2010 minus 200kbpd. So 2,270 for 2010. Moving up steadily.

Present production(2006) comes in under CERA's 2005 "capacity" forecast by 200kbpd. The question is whether or not to cut another 200Kbpd.

For now we will compromise at 100kbpd. So 2,170.

Brazil

Number 16
Brazil


The difference between BP's and EIA's numbers are the roughly 250,000 bpd of ethanol Brazil produces.

***
March 22
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=42873

Brazil's federal energy company Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) last month saw domestic and international production grow 1.3% to 1.94Mb/d compared to January, the company said in a statement.
xxx Petrobras attributed the performance in part to resumed production at the P-37 platform in the Marlim field following a programmed shutdown in January.
xxx The start of production at the Cottonwood field in the US and improved performance in Ecuador were also behind the increase. xxx Domestic production increased 1.1% to 1.80Mb/d and international output in eight countries climbed 2.7% to 131,306b/d.
xxx Petrobras' international production came from operations in Angola, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, the US and Venezuela. Argentine output made up the bulk of this production with 57,193b/d.
xxx As for domestic production, offshore and onshore output was 1.56Mb/d and 231,900b/d respectively, the statement said.

xxxxxxx






United Kingdom

17 United Kingdom


Kazakhstan

Number 18
Kazakhstan


March 2007 STEO:1.29, 1.35, 1,45, 1.52 mbpd by 2008. I'm lowering target to 1.85 by 2010 from 2.0 on recent Kashagan news.

Three-field spreadsheet analysis.





Angola

Number 19

Angola

Angola, which may soon be joining OPEC, wants to increase its daily oil production to 2 million barrels by 2008. But to meet that goal the country will need about $10 billion in additional annual investment, and it appears the money is forthcoming.

Chevron is among the companies that have increased investments in the country’s oil sector. The company produces about 500,000 barrels per day in Angola (roughly one-third of the country’s output) and its subsidiary, Cabinda Gulf Oil Co., has started producing oil from the Landana North reservoir in the Tombua-Landana development area. Landana is about 50 miles off the coast of Cabinda, an enclave that belongs to Angola (though not contiguous with that country), located north of the Congo River mouth. When Landana’s peak production is reached in 2010, output for its 46 wells should be 100,000 barrels per day.


Posted on Jan. 17, 2007

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=353


***
Saudi Arabia Warns Angola on Oil Expansion

3/14/2007
URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=42519

Saudia Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has told Angola, its newest entrant, not to assume it will be able to expand production past 2 million barrels a day, The Financial Times reports Wednesday, without citing sources. This is a blow to the world's biggest oil companies, which have already paid Angola billions of dollars for the right to explore and produce its oil. Angola joined the oil cartel in January and should reach the 2 million barrel a day threshold at the start of next year. It had a target ofproducing 2.5 million barrels a day by 2012, a target which has now been thrown into doubt.



Angola, one of the poorest places on Earth, is an oil industry darling
By Jad Mouawad
Published: March 19, 2007


http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/19/business/angola.php



Qatar

20 Qatar


Monday, February 5, 2007

Indonesia

21 - Indonesia

"D" Group.

Oman


22 Oman

"D" Group.

Malaysia

23 Malaysia


Argentina

Number 24

Argentina

Currently, Argentina is an energy exporter, but perhaps not for long. According to the national statistical institute, INDEC, in October 2006 the difference between exports and imports for crude oil, natural gas, and electric energy was a positive $530 million. But oil production peaked in 1998 at 850,000 barrels of oil per day, and has declined since then to 700,000 barrels of oil per day. Oil companies have failed to increase production from mature onshore assets. The major stakeholders in Argentinean oil production are Repsol-YPF (a Spanish-owned company) with 41.5 percent of oil production, Pan American (U.S.-owned) with 16.9 percent, and Brazil’s Petrobras with almost 10 percent. Chevron controls 8.6 percent, and a number of smaller oil companies account for the remaining 23 percent.

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=414


Egypt

26 Egypt


Australia


27 Australia

Group "D."

Columbia

28 Columbia

Group "D."