Libya

Libya comes in at number 15 on the production list. Number 12 on the exporter list.

1,702 thousand barrels per day average in 2005 according to BP. According to BP this is also their recent peak production.

CERA has this to say:

Libya has suffered from two decades of underinvestment, but now that sanctions have been lifted, there is a feeling that it is "Aladdin’s cave waiting to be opened." Some US operators with major presanction positions have been negotiating to extend their old concessions, which were signed in the mid-1950s and are set to expire between end-2005 and early 2007 (Oasis Group–Conoco/Hess/Marathon and Zuetina Group–Oxy). The issue is not the principle of extension, but its length and the improvement of contractual terms. The Libyans held at the end of January the EPSA-1V upstream licensing round in which 15 new licenses were awarded. It marked the return of American companies, which won 10 out of the 15 areas. Although this round generated major interest, some notable companies either did not participate or bid unsuccessfully. Much of the country remains unexplored, and although non-US investors made progress during the period of sanctions, the level of investment was not enough to expand capacity significantly. Many of the fields are mature, and natural decline may be now be quite high as a result of underinvestment during the sanction period.

A further licensing round is anticipated to start in second quarter 2005, and a mature fields round is in expected in mid-2005. CERA anticipates that liquids capacity will climb from 1.95 mbd in 2005 to 2.47 mbd in 2010. Much of this gain will be sourced in the medium term from rehabilitation of the existing fields, especially those of the Oasis and Zuetina groups, but some capacity will be added from discoveries that will be made in the next two to three years. In the short term, liquids additions from the Elephant and El Saharah fields and the West Libya Gas Project will continue to expand. Perhaps the greatest constraint on progress will be the pace at which the Libyan authorities decide to manage the influx of new investment.

Further analysis:

The EIA has Libya at 1,633 C+C production for 2005, up slightly to 1,684 for 2006(thru November) - roughly in-line with BP numbers, when you figure 68kbpd NGL's(2004). So we're going to go with CERA's forecast to 2010 minus 200kbpd. So 2,270 for 2010. Moving up steadily.

Present production(2006) comes in under CERA's 2005 "capacity" forecast by 200kbpd. The question is whether or not to cut another 200Kbpd.

For now we will compromise at 100kbpd. So 2,170.