Iran

04 - Iran



From CERA's 2005 Report:

Iranian crude and condensate capacity is estimated to be 4.17 mbd in 2005 and could rise to as much as 5.07 mbd by 2010 (see Figure 7b). However, a number of uncertainties could slow this expansion, including the current political situation, unattractive buyback contracts, and protracted negotiations, all of which have discouraged foreign investment. Indeed, one supermajor has stated in public that it would not invest in Iran at present. The liquids capacity growth story is still dominated by expansion of the mature fields, and a number of feasibility studies involving mature fields are under way. Before any capacity expansion occurs, annual depletion rates of around 350,000 bd have to be counterbalanced. The Azadegan contract was signed in 2004, but delays are already being experienced with drilling contracts, and the start-up will likely be delayed past 2007. Expansions are also expected at Darkhovin, Masjid-i-Suleiman, and more imminently at Nowruz/Souroush, where capacity should to rise to 190,000 bd in mid-2005, and a large increase in NGLs and condensate is expected as the South Pars gas condensate field is developed.