CERA and Daniel Yergin

Probably one of the most fascinating stories in the world of oil is that of Daniel Yergin. In 1991? he penned the masterpiece The Prize. If ever there was a book about oil, this is it.

Today he is considered by some the goto guy for words of wisdom and by others as somewhat of a villain.

More to be said about this quirky deal in the future. For now I just wanted to get something posted for this CERA link that has been staring me in the face since I started this blog.

CERA (or Cambridge Energy Research Associates) is most reviled for its forecast of future global oil-production capacity extending to 2010 and then 2015. The original 2010 version was published in early 2005. As of this writing(March 2007, 2 years later) I think it is safe to say that it was very wrong.

But I don't want to berate them for this. I'd rather explore the reasons why it was so wrong - or maybe even whether it is actually wrong, and then try to figure out what can be done better. To see how easy it is to come up with a five- or ten-year forecast that nails it.